Dabo Swinney's Clemson Teams vs SEC

 

There is talk that an ACC team, either North Carolina, FSU, or Clemson, may join the SEC at sometime in the near future which makes the opening LSU vs Clemson game, "The battle for the real Death Valley", even slightly more interesting. If there is any college football fan at this point not totally focused on this game.

ESPN's Chris Low posted an article this morning titled “College football schedule superlatives for 2025 season” . In this article Chris Low rated Clemson as having the “toughest Power 4 nonconference schedule” because of LSU, South Carolina and having to play Troy the week after the Clemson-LSU game. Troy went 4-8 last season. Is it noteworthy that LSU faces Louisiana Tech immediately after the Clemson game? La Tech went 5-7 last season. That's better than 4-8, right?

I had to take a shot at Low's inflation of Clemson's schedule. Low slights neither Clemson nor a slight at the SEC or LSU. That was the minor point of interest to LSU vs Clemson fans. The more interesting paragraph in Low's article was this:

Dabo and the SEC

“Clemson's Dabo Swinney gets another shot at the SEC to open the season in the Battle of Death Valleys on Aug. 30 against LSU. Clemson is 18-12 vs. the SEC since the start of the 2012 season, but the Tigers have lost seven of their past 10 games to SEC opponents, beginning with a 42-25 loss to LSU in the 2019 national championship game.”

 

I am not sure why Low chose game since the start of the 2012 season or Clemson's past 10 games versus the SEC. This uncertainty prompted me to do a little research on Dabo Swinney's Clemson record versus the SEC.

For those that do not follow Clemson Football or who just do not know the history:

Dabo Swinney took over as Interim Head coach of Clemson October 13, 2008 after the sixth game of the season. Previous head coach Tommy Bowden was fired after the 6th game of the season with a record of 3-3 for the season.  Swinney’s first full season as head coach of Clemson was 2009.  This is the record  versus the SEC each year:

2009 1-1
@South Carolina 34-17 L 
Post Season Music City Bowl vs Kentucky 21-13 W

2010 0-2
@Auburn 27-24OT L
vs South Carolina 29-7 L

2011 1-1
vs Auburn 38-24 W
@South Carolina 34-13 L

2012 2-1
vs Auburn 26-19 W
vs South Carolina 27-17 L
Post Season Chick-Fil-A Bowl vs #8LSU 25-24 W

2013 1-1
vs #5Georgia 38-35 W
@#10South Carolina 31-17 L

2014 1-1
@#12Georgia 45-21 L
vs South Carolina 35-17 W
 
2015 1-1
@SouthCarolina 37-32 W
Post Season National Championship vs #2Alabama 45-40 L

2016 3-0
@Auburn 19-13 W
vs South Carolina 56-7 W
Post Season National Championship vs #1Alabama 35-31 W

2017 2-1
vs Auburn 14-6 W
@South Carolina 34-10 W
Post Season Semifinal vs #4 Alabama 24-6 L

2018 3-0
@Texas A&M 28-26 W
vs South Carolina 56-35 W
Post Season National Championship vs #1 Alabama 44-16 W

2019 2-1
vs Texas A&M 24-10 W
@South Carolina 38-3 W
Post Season National Championship vs #1 LSU 42-25 L

2020 0-0
Did Not Play an SEC team

2021 1-1
vs Georgia 10-3 L
@ South Carolina 30-0 W

2022  0-2
vs South Carolina 31-30 L
Post Season Orange Bowl vs #6 Tennessee 31-14 L

2023 2-0
@ South Carolina 16-7 W
Post Season Gator Bowl vs Kentucky 38-35 W

2024 0-3
vs Georgia 34-3 L
vs South Carolina 17-14 L
Post Season CFB Playoffs Round 1 vs #5 Texas 38-24

All statistics were gathered by looking at the ESPN Clemson schedules for each year. Teams, like Oklahoma, were only include as an SEC team if they were a part of the SEC when they played Clemson.

On3 picks Clemson and LSU to win conference titles

 

Griffin McVeigh of On3 predicted all conference matchups and winners in an article titled "College Football Predictions: Projecting Conference Championship finalists, winners".

Not surprisingly, Clemson was chosen to be the ACC conference champion this year.  McVeigh believes that with the addition of Carson Beck at quarterback, Miami will be the runner up in the ACC. That is not surprising either.  Miami was bumped out of the ACC championship and a likely playoff spot last year on a lost fumble to Georgia Tech that ultimately decided the game. At the time Miami was undefeated and ranked #4. While officially it was a loss two games later to Syracuse that setup a Miami absent ACC championship between SMU and Clemson, the "unforgivable mistake" late in the Georgia Tech game signaled the end of what was a storybook season for Miami.

McVeigh picking LSU to win the SEC championship is bit more surprising. It is no secret that I am an LSU homer but it is hard for me to say this early that Texas or Georgia or even Alabama are not more obvious choices for non-LSU homers. McVeigh predicts that LSU will beat Texas in the SEC championship game. Considering that I attended LSU and then Texas A&M, for graduate work, I couldn't be happier for Mr. Griffin McVeigh to make such a prediction. Now I am going to have to think long and hard about whether I think McVeigh is my favorite sports reporter or Conner O'Gara of Saturday Down South, who predicted that LSU would beat Georgia for the SEC championship and then win the National Championship this year! 

Even if neither Clemson nor LSU live up to the lofty predictions that are being thrown their way during preseason, the opening game where LSU travels to Death Valley Jr. to face Clemson is a must see game.

While we are focused on the LSU-Clemson game there is one more thing that may give some pause for thought.  I asked Grok, on one of my other blogs College Football's Big Game, to pick first week games that had a line of 6-points or less and Grok said take LSU and the points.

 

Clemson and LSU included in ESPN National Contender Article

 Clemson and LSU included in ESPN National Contender Article 

Preseason predictions and even rankings during the early part of the football season are often more entertaining than accurate.  I noticed in an On3 article this morning that Joel Klatt has ranked the top five teams that he is "buying stock" in this season. Klatt, a Fox Sports commentator and analyst, lists Clemson at #1 but LSU is not included at all in the list. Klatt's main points: last year Clemson was able to win the ACC Championship game, make it to the College Playoffs, and Clemson returns most of the team and especially key players. If you have read my July 19th article "Is Clemson really that good? Could LSU be much better?" you know the lingering questions that I have about Clemson. If, like Clemson, you only beat two teams with winning records and those wins are achieved by a combined total of 7points (3pts better than SMU, and 4pts better than a 7-6 Pitt team), then I wonder if you belong in a game with other contenders? Other contenders that Clemson played in 2024, Georgia and Texas, beat Clemson at the beginning and end of the season by a combined 45 points.  Georgia beat Clemson by 31 points in a 2024 opener and Texas beat Clemson by 14 in the last game Clemson played last year.  Clemson did play an outstanding game against Texas despite the two touchdown loss. Who knows, if Clemson were in the SEC or Big 10, they might even be the fourth or fifth best team in either of those leagues. Maybe even third?

What has me really interested today is an article posted on ESPN.com titled “Connelly's college football 'ifs' list: How contenders can come together”  by Bill Connelly.  Connelly makes the observation that "no national title winner over the past 24 seasons has begun the season with title odds longer than +5000. No matter the title format -- a BCS championship, then a four-team College Football Playoff and then, starting in 2024, a 12-team CFP -- the champ has come from a pool of about 14 to 18 favorites." Connelly then lists and discuss that chances of 14 teams that he considers to have a shot at a National Title this year.  Both Clemson and LSU are included in Connelly's list.  LSU faces five teams on the list: Clemson, Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, and Ole Miss. Clemson, Alabama, and Ole Miss will all be road games for LSU. Clemson faces only one team on Connelly's list: LSU. And that will be in Clemson's home opener.  

I read somewhere that some experts are touting Clemson's nonconference schedule. While Clemson does play strong SEC teams LSU and South Carolina. Composite rankings have LSU as ranked high as 3rd and South Carolina as high as 6th in the SEC. The other two nonconference team Clemson has scheduled are Troy and Furman. 

I do understand that Clemson has a really good chance of obtaining a playoff slot at the ACC champion even if they have 3 regular season losses as they did in 2024. And once you are in the playoffs, you have a chance to be National Champions. Some a betting that Clemson is that good this year.

Connelly believes that Clemson see hope from last season. The hope includes Quarterback Cade Klubnik's four 20-plus yard passes thrown against an outstanding Texas defense in last year's playoff loss coupled with the fact that wide receivers Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., and T.J. Moore are returning with more experience from last year.  Another hope from last year is the return of T.J. Moore who registered 11 sacks last year coupled with NFL caliber defensive tackle Peter Wood's return and the addition of Purdue transfer Will Heldt to Clemson's d-line. Another hope is that Clemson is able to once again repeat their nationally 3rd best turnover rate. The final hope is that the addition of new Defensive Coordinator, Tom Allen, will remedy last year's run defense that ranked 113th in yards allowed.  LSU is familiar with the need for defensive improvement.

LSU has been working on improving defense for a couple of years. Most will recall that LSU had an unstoppable offense that included Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and was still not a national contender because of defensive needs.  This year LSU is rebuilding in both trenches, offensive and defensive lines, and has brought in help not only on both lines but also in the defensive secondary.  If these new starters and transfers blend in and shore up some of LSU needs, there is hope.  Even more exciting is LSU's built up receiving corps both at Wide Receiver and Tight End.  And finally if Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins Jr. are fully healed, LSU should have a return to a really good defense that was lacking in the last two seasons. This is LSU Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker's second year and while he slightly improved LSU's defense last year, this year LSU's defense may make a real leap ahead. That would give LSU a chance for a win in the season opener and maybe even for another National Championship.  LSU's 2019 team is legendary and I think it is about time for another legendary LSU team.