LSU, Clemson, and Georgia History Repeat
I have been doing some deep thinking about the possibilities of the LSU - Clemson game, this time with no assists from any AI. I was looking over my July 31st post “Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Teams vs. the SEC” for a season that might resemble this year. I know that it is a real risk to predict a season before the first game is played, but, this is that time of year when sports writers and fans make fun and possibly wild guesses. It is so much more exciting at the end of the season when you have guessed right weeks before the first kickoff. What caught my eye in the Dabo vs the SEC post was the 2021 season. In that year Clemson had a team with a great Quarterback, a great team, with a proven potential to contend for a National Championship, and they opened the season against a highly ranked SEC team.
The opening game of 2021 for Clemson was against preseason #5 SEC opponent Georgia. Clemson’s Quarterback, D.J. Uiagalelei, had been the a 5-star, #1 QB, #2 overall national player out of St. John Bosco high school in California. Uiagalelei, who is currently on the roster of the Los Angeles Chargers, played behind Trevor Lawrence in his freshman year but managed to throw for 917yards with more than 100 attempts (117), with a 66.7% completion rate and 5 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. In 2021, his second year, he would throw for more than 2,000 yards and lead the Tigers to a 10-3 record with a victory over Iowa State in the Cheez-It Bowl. Before transferring to Oregon State Uiagalelei would throw for 5,681 yards, 36 touchdowns and 17 interceptions as a Clemson Tiger. As a starting Quarterback for Clemson Uiagalelei led teams went 22-6. 17 interceptions was far too many interceptions and Cade Klubnik replaced Uiagalelei. These are the points that Clemson fans will probably make when denouncing my guess that the 2021 season may be about to repeat for Clemson and their opening SEC opponent but I’m an LSU fan.
Clemson did not just have the heir apparent to Trevor Lawrence they had a solid team rank #2 in the USA Today and #3 in the AP preseason polls. Those rankings were earned for success the previous year, a great Quarterback and offense, and a really strong defensive line and defense altogether. Before the first game was played in 2021 Clemson had 8 All ACC players, Uiagalelei and wide receiver Justyn Ross were on the Maxwell award watch list, Ross was also on the Biletnikoff (Best WR) award watch list, 5 defensive players were on the Bednarik (defensive player of the year) award watch list, Cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. and Safety Nolan Turner were on the Jim Thorpe (top defensive back) award watchlist, and Running Back Lyn-J Dixon was on the Doak Walker (best college running back) award watch list. That description sounds a lot like the caliber of the Clemson 2025 team to me. That team, loaded with talent, went 10-3 in 2021. It is folly to argue that 10-3 is a bad or even mediocre season.
The 2021 season opened with the expectations of a national championship win. In the previous season, 2020, Clemson had only lost 1 regular season game to a Brian Kelly coached Notre Dame team at Notre Dame. They made it to the playoffs and lost to Ohio State in the CFP Sugar Bowl Semifinals. In 2019, Clemson went undefeated, 14-0, before losing 42-25 in the National Championship to LSU. After 2019 and 2021 it looked like that 2021 might be the charmed season that equaled a third Championship trophy on the shelf to go along with Clemson’s 2016 and 2018 National Championship trophies. Opening against Georgia, preseason #5 in both AP and the Coaches polls, would be a great way to show that this Clemson team was ready to dominate once again.
The opening betting lines for 2021 #2-3 Clemson vs #5 Georgia favored Clemson by 2.5pts, the Over/Under was 51.5pts, Money Line was Clemson -140, Georgia +120. The opening betting line for 2025 #4-6 Clemson vs #9 LSU favors Clemson by 2.5pts, the Over/Under is 57.5pts, Money Line is Clemson -137, LSU +114.
Had you bet on Georgia in 2021 or Under, you would have won. I think betting LSU or Under could be a winner in 2025.* By all expert prognostications LSU is going to get killed in Death Valley Jr. this year. Clemson has a 2021/2020/2019 type of team this year. LSU will have to have a team similar to their Joe Burrow led LSU team of 2019, the only team to defeat Clemson in 2019. That game was a closer game than the 42-25 score would suggest. I think it is possible that LSU may have that team this year. One of the big storylines for the Clemson vs LSU game is Heisman Quarterback hopefuls. While most analysts are pinning LSU’s hopes on QB Garrett Nussmeier, most analysts are also saying that Clemson QB Cade Klubnik is better. Also, Clemson has a lot of players on both sides of the ball on preseason awards and award watchlists; more than LSU.
I have been watching LSU’s preseason as closely as possible and I think that LSU’s defense is going to be really, really good this year. I think the strength of that defense is preparing LSU for the defense that they will face when they suit up for the opener against Clemson. The big question is when/how/if LSU’s offensive line will come together and play at a National Championship level. Most of the offensive linemen were high school blue chippers and all, with the possible exception of freshman Carius Curne (6’5” 320lbs per LSU.net roster, #3OT per 247sports.com ), have at least a year in the LSU program and some college game experience. In addition, two of the apparent O-line starters, Center Braelin Moore (from VaTech) and Guard Josh Thompson (from Northwestern) were starters on their previous Power4 conference teams.
I think that LSU’s preseason ranking is based on the fact while we know Garrett Nussmeier can pass and has both solid ball catchers that he has thrown to in big games and possibly even better ball catchers that have transferred in this year, we don’t know whether LSU has an offensive line that will protect him long enough to make those passes. LSU also has a really good returning running back and a solid running back rotation. LSU also has a collection of solid strong and experienced defensive players that have played for underachieving LSU defenses in recent previous years coupled with all stars from the transfer portal with proven playing experience. And it is Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker’s second year as LSU’s DC. Preseason indications point to a vaunted LSU defense of old but we will not know until the play in real games this year.
Clemson should have beaten Georgia in 2021 but neither team scored an offensive touchdown in that game. Both starting Quarterbacks threw an interception each in that game and neither threw or rushed for a touchdown. Did I mention that Clemson’s starting QB, D.J. Uiagalelei, eventually ran for 21 touchdowns in his college career? Unfortunately for Uiagalelei and Clemson his one interception in that opening game was run back for the only touchdown by either team. The ending score was 10-3 in favor of Georgia. Both teams score a field goal. The set up for the 2025 LSU vs. Clemson game is similar and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if the outcome this year was also similar. It is noteworthy that in 2021 Georgia went on to win all but one regular season game in an away game at Alabama. Georgia would finish the 2021 season avenging that one loss to Alabama by beating Alabama for a National Championship. I wonder if that is another possible scenario that might play out for the LSU Tigers this year?
*( Full disclosure: Don’t risk your money because of anything I write. For the record, I went to LSU; my younger brother went to LSU; before we existed my parents met as students at LSU. My mother was a freshman at the game when Billy Cannon had his famous touchdown run against Ole Miss. Should you read something that I write about Texas A&M or Mizzou you should know that I tutored the football team at Texas A&M when I was a graduate student at Texas A&M and I have a Masters degree from the University of Missouri. So I will be fan biased in favor of those three schools.)
